Uh-Oh: Earning Flying Blue Status Might Get Harder Soon

We’ve just learned about what could be the pin that pops the Flying Blue bubble.

Some Air France-KLM Flying Blue members have received a survey about the possibility of changing the way status-earning XP (Experience Points) are awarded, and it’s not looking good.

No changes have been confirmed as yet, but here’s how the future of earning status with Flying Blue might look soon — assuming any of these surveyed changes become a reality.

Flying Blue Elites Might Not Earn XP on Some Business Class Tickets

The survey, which I haven’t personally received, is being hotly discussed in a FlyerTalk thread. It presents some theoretical changes to earning Flying Blue status that could lead to some unbundled, basic business class fares with KLM earning no XP points at all.

Additionally, each different fare bundle within each cabin on long-haul flights with both Air France and KLM would earn a different number of XP — Experience Points, which are the sole metric for earning Flying Blue status. This would replace the current standard rate, which is the same whether you bought a discounted ticket or an expensive, fully flexible business-class fare. Flying Air France would also earn more XPs than flying KLM. I’m not surprised by this last point; in some ways, KLM could be viewed as Air France’s low-cost underling.

As it currently stands, Flying Blue members earn the same amount of XP whether they book a Business Standard or Business Flex fare, while an extra 5 XP is awarded for the most expensive Business Flex Extra SAF fare. As a side note, $1,625 for a one-way nonstop flight to Paris in Air France’s business class is actually quite a good deal…

If these changes were to come into force, then Flying Blue would join the ever-growing list of devalued loyalty programs that are essentially modern-day Trojan Horses: Designed to look like they’re set up to benefit the customers of an airline, but, on the inside, they’re just lucrative cash cows that help airline execs earn their bonuses.

But this is also why these potential changes don’t make complete sense to me. If Air France-KLM were to remove XPs from the lowest cash fares, people who are actively chasing status with the airline (like myself and many others) would be very unlikely to pay a higher fare bracket just to earn XPs.

If that were the case, it would surely result in those once-loyal flyers booking with other airlines, perhaps within either Oneworld or Star Alliance, rather than SkyTeam. Not only would that lead to fewer elite status holders, it would ultimately lead to less overall revenue. I don’t have access to any of the airline’s internal data, but I’m certain many business class ticket purchases come from Flying Blue members who are actively seeking to earn or retain status every year.

I’m not an expert on the microeconomics of loyalty programs (yet), but if the airlines’ goal is to earn more money from Flying Blue, then this scenario seems almost counterproductive.

However, some Flying Blue members whose employers pay cash for their expensive, changeable, premium cabin tickets for business trips will continue to earn their status regardless. And if these members are always flying in business class, they won’t mind if they’re either losing status or holding perks they aren’t using — either of which could pad the airlines’ profits.

Factor in that the airlines will make the most money from these tickets, and it becomes clearer that these potential changes are, once again, reminiscent of the Trojan horse scenario above.

Worse still, this could be a warning sign that Flying Blue is teetering on the edge of replacing the current XP earning method entirely with a revenue-based model, as British Airways recently did and Aeroplan will do soon.

Given Flying Blue’s recent, very attractive status-match offer to poach disgruntled British Airways Club members, this would be quite ironic.

Final Thoughts

Flying Blue’s recent survey is enough to startle Air France and KLM’s frequent flyers. If the changes mentioned in the survey are implemented, a likely outcome is that Flying Blue will be predominantly composed of high-spending premium cabin customers, rather than those who’ve flown a lot or found good deals throughout the year. Not only that, but this type of traveler also poses significant benefits to Air France and KLM’s bottom lines, as these customers rarely fly economy and thus don’t even need to use their status perks.

I’d like to think this isn’t a sign of what’s to come, but I don’t hold out much hope.