The Impending Jet Fuel Crisis: How Will It Affect Your Trip?

The global repercussions of the current conflict in the Middle East are increasing by the day.

One such negative impact is access to fuel — more specifically jet fuel — and it’s becoming more complicated and costly with every passing day.

With headlines such as “Europe has maybe 6 weeks of jet fuel left” bouncing around, we wanted to take a closer look to find out exactly how the crisis could impact flying to, from, and around the U.S. and what that might mean for your travel plans.

What Has Caused the Jet Fuel Crisis?

Many countries import oil and natural gas from the Middle East, including jet fuel. To reach Asia and Europe, the fuel is transported from countries across the region, including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. Around 20% of the world’s liquified natural gas and oil is transported using the waterway.

As a result of the ongoing Gulf conflict, Iran, the country at the center of headlines, has blocked the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the attacks it’s suffered. Not only that, but the Middle East is also where much of the world’s crude oil is refined into jet fuel. These refineries have also been a target of attacks, which have reduced their operational capacity.

Consequently, this has made it harder for airlines to secure jet fuel, and, as the rules of supply and demand dictate, prices have skyrocketed.

Impacts of the Jet Fuel Crisis for U.S. Travelers

As the U.S. produces its own jet fuel, the risk of airlines running out isn’t the prime concern. However, the knock-on effects of supply and demand mean the U.S. can’t escape rising costs, even with its own fuel supply.

Evidence of this has been the recent trend of increasing checked baggage fees. It’s a common strategy for airlines to pass on increased costs to passengers. While frustrating, airlines have to earn money to survive. When costs rise significantly, they have to expand their revenue streams to be able to keep passengers flying.

At least for now, U.S. travelers aren’t likely to face cancellations when flying around the U.S. On the other hand, flights to and from the U.S. are already being affected. Reuters is even reporting that Air Canada plans to trim daily flights to New York in June. This trend is likely to spread to flights between the U.S. and other destinations worldwide, particularly Asia and Europe.

All Eyes Are on Europe

It’s a slightly different story on the other side of the Atlantic. Countries in Europe are seeing doubled prices for jet fuel.

As Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, explained to AP News, this is “the largest energy crisis we’ve ever faced.” He even suggested that Europe could run out of jet fuel altogether in as little as 6 weeks.

The U.S. is now supplying Europe with jet fuel; some 150,000 barrels a day on average have been sent across The Pond so far this April. If that continues or the quantity increases, then it could eventually result in shortages in the U.S.

President Trump, who wrote on Truth Social that “We have plenty [of fuel],” could be mistaking this as an opportunity to cash in. However, Matt Smith, analyst at Kpler, told Reuters that “it is very, very, very unlikely that the U.S. can replace the Strait of Hormuz supply.”

Airlines across the continent are analyzing route networks and fuel consumption to see where they can make savings. In recent days, KLM announced it would cut 80 European routes from its hub at Amsterdam Schiphol (AMS), Lufthansa was the first airline to confirm it would ground aircraft imminently, and British low-cost carrier easyJet reported slower-than-usual bookings.

Is it time to panic? Not just yet. “There are no fuel shortages in the E.U. at present,” a European Union spokesperson told Irish news publication RTE. “We are, however, preparing for possible supply shortages of jet fuels.”

As for the U.K. specifically, “U.K. airlines are clear that they are currently not seeing disruption to supply,” a U.K. government spokesperson told the BBC.

Birol also suggested that it won’t be richer countries like those in Europe or the U.S. where the situation could get a lot worse. “The countries that will suffer the most will not be those whose voices are heard a lot. It will be mainly the developing countries. Poorer countries in Asia, in Africa, and in Latin America.”

Airlines in Nigeria may stop flying as of April 20, according to Reuters, as jet fuel costs cripple their operations.

Final Thoughts

There’s no denying the situation is serious. The conflict in the Middle East is having, and will continue to have, negative repercussions on the airline industry.

Yes, prices are rising. Yes, supplies are running low. And yes, some airlines are having to adapt to continue operations. But we can take solace in the fact that industry experts and government officials can share the facts, and that we’re still far from the aviation world collapsing the way we saw in 2020.

For now, the headlines are just doing what they always do: grabbing attention for clicks.