Where Travel and Credit Card Rewards Are Going in 2026: Upgraded Points’ Predictions

If there’s one thing we know about the travel and credit card industries, it’s that they are constantly changing. Last year saw no shortage of stories. From the U.S. government shutdown to the near-collapse of Spirit Airlines and massive credit card overhauls, 2025 was full of events, big and small, that shaped our space for better and worse.

Clearly, it’s impossible to predict everything that will happen over the course of an entire year. Still, given what unfolded last year, we can make inferences about what we might see across the travel and credit card spectrum in 2026.

Let’s dive into what we think we’ll see this year!

‘Unbundled’ Fares Will Proliferate Across the Industry

What started with low-cost airlines will continue to spread to more full-service carriers. By now, we’re all accustomed to basic economy tickets. Still, we’ve already seen full-service carriers such as Air France and KLM introduce “unbundled” fares in business class to select destinations.

These “Business Light” fares exclude lounge access and only include 1 checked bag of up to 70 pounds, instead of the typical allowance of 2 for “Business Standard” tickets.

This growing phenomenon isn’t limited to just foreign carriers, either. Delta has all but confirmed a “basic business class” product is on its way. The carrier has already introduced Delta One Classic and Delta One Extra fares, the latter of which offers more flexibility and rewards, including full refunds, elevated SkyMiles earnings, higher upgrade priority, and free same-day confirmed changes in the U.S. and Canada. Meanwhile, Classic fares offer eCredits for cancellations, standard earnings, and standby-only same-day changes.

United, too, hinted that a stripped-down version of its Polaris business class product is coming. While we don’t know exactly what these new concepts will look like, we can speculate that these tickets will include more restrictions on lounge access and mileage earnings, and possibly even additional fees for selecting seats.

What we can say at this point, however, is that more unbundling will happen in 2026, and it’s likely that very few carriers — if any at all — will resist the urge to get in on the “fun.”

Elite Status Will Continue To Get Less Valuable — Though More Expensive

Thanks to multiyear extensions as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ranks of elite flyers (and hotel elites) swelled precipitously. As a result, airlines made extensive changes to their frequent flyer programs specifically to “thin the herd,” so to speak.

In practice, this meant making it more expensive to obtain elite status — and significantly so. Now, the primary criterion for qualifying for elite status with all 3 of the major U.S. legacy carriers is how much one spends with the airline, not necessarily how much they fly.

At the same time, however, airlines leaned into the reality that they achieve higher profits from premium passengers and began offering more opportunities for passengers to buy up to premium cabins at often very reasonable rates, depending on the flight.

These concurrent phenomena have led to a situation in which some of the most traditionally prized perks of elite status — especially complimentary seat upgrades — have become far more difficult to come by. That’s thanks to an increase in the number of elite members and also a greater number of people electing to simply buy a better seat.

Despite stricter requirements than ever to qualify, many elite members still feel their loyalty isn’t adequately recognized, and, anecdotally, they’re receiving fewer upgrades than in the past. Presumably, the inevitable outcome is yet another round of making qualification even more expensive so that only the most loyal flyers — read: biggest spenders — can achieve the upper echelons of elite status.

Award Availability Will Continue To Be Tight

In years past, just about every points-and-miles enthusiast had at least 1 “go-to” redemption they could make fairly reliably. However, in recent years, it has become much more difficult to reliably redeem points and miles for flights, particularly in premium cabins, at the “starting at” price in award programs.

Much of this can be explained by the phenomenon described above, in which passengers simply pay for the seats they want — even those that cross oceans and cost thousands of dollars. As a result, airlines are making fewer seats available for redemption because they no longer have to.

It’s reasonable to believe that until macroeconomic conditions change, this unfortunate situation will persist. As long as the wealthy feel they have the disposable income to spend on multiple-thousand-dollar flights, airlines and loyalty programs will continue to not be motivated to sell as many seats with miles. The revenue they generate from premium seats booked with cash is far greater than what they get from a seat booked with points or miles.

For us, the award travelers, this means it’s essential to remain diligent and flexible in our planning. Award seats can still be found, but it requires more patience and spontaneity, especially if you want to secure seats in some of the best cabins in the sky.

Hotel Redemptions Will Continue To Get More Expensive

Last year was a tough one for those with hotel points. Hilton Honors alone devalued some of its highest-tier properties more than once in 2025. Although it partially reversed some of the most recent devaluations, it signals that there’s motivation on the part of the hotel chains to push the envelope when it comes to award pricing.

All of the major hotel programs, except for World of Hyatt, utilize “dynamic pricing,” which means they can theoretically charge any amount of points for a given night. While we’ve largely seen properties adhere to upper bounds, those maximums appear to be increasing (often).

World of Hyatt is the only major hotel program that currently doesn’t employ dynamic pricing. While we certainly hope this doesn’t change, it wouldn’t surprise us to see it happen (just don’t do this to us in 2026, Hyatt).

As long as hotels can fill the rooms they’re selling at often exorbitant award rates, there’s no reason to believe there will be any retreat in terms of the increase in award rates.

The Fad ‘Coupon-Book’ Style Credit Card Perks Might Fade

While we’ve likely never seen a better time in terms of the sheer amount of perks, benefits, and statement credits offered by the top credit cards in the market, the way they’re delivered has many cardholders frustrated.

Some of the top products, including the Platinum Card^® from American Express and Chase Sapphire Reserve^®, deliver perks and benefits in a “coupon book” fashion, meaning what’s advertised as, for example, a $300 annual perk may be delivered on a bi-annual, quarterly, or monthly basis, and it may come with further restrictions on how it can be used. This leads to a situation where cardholders feel they’re not actually achieving the full value of the perk as advertised.

It can feel frustratingly complex trying to use the benefit without spending extra money.

I wrote about how the refreshed Chase Sapphire Reserve card — while rich in perks, benefits, and statement credits — now feels too complicated and time-consuming to manage, offering a package that, while valuable on paper, doesn’t actually live up to the numbers in real life.

This caused me to downgrade that card to a Chase Freedom^® card, and I plan to open a new Chase Sapphire Preferred^® Card in the future. I believe that card delivers the core thrust of the Sapphire products without the high annual fee and time and effort required to manage all the benefits the Chase Sapphire Reserve card comes with.

Recently, however, we’ve seen issuers pick up on the sentiment many cardholders have, and the tide may (I repeat, may) be shifting toward more usable, practical credits that ultimately can feel more valuable. For example, the Citi Strata Elite℠ Card offers a $200 annual “Splurge Credit,” which allows cardholders to receive up to $200 back in statement credits on up to 2 selected merchants, including American Airlines, Best Buy, and more.

This kind of credit is fantastic because you can use it all at once and (largely) however you please. For example, if you see an American Airlines flight you’d like to purchase for $350, you could charge the ticket to your Citi Strata Elite card and receive $200 back in statement credits, meaning you’re effectively spending just $150 on the ticket.

Depending on the reception of the major refreshes to both the Amex Platinum card and the Chase Sapphire Reserve card, we could see the major issuers take a second look at how they’re offering perks, benefits, and, most importantly, statement credits to cardholders. Hopefully, we’ll see a shift toward more usable and practical credits that aren’t so limited or dispersed at intervals that make it harder to realize the full value of a given benefit.

Final Thoughts

No one can predict the future with certainty. That much is certain. However, we’ve been in this business a long time, and we like to think we’re pretty good at reading the writing on the wall when it comes to the travel industry.

Drawing on our experiences in 2025 and prior years as a guide, we believe these will be some of the significant trends in travel and credit cards for 2026. We’re excited to see this year unfold and see how right (or wrong) we were when 2027 approaches.